Mirrorless- Continuing to Under Perform

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
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EinsteinsGhost
EinsteinsGhost Forum Pro • Posts: 11,977
Re: Figures show mirrorless gaining ground?

Mike CH wrote:

Chris R-UK wrote:

The figures in the graph are difficult to estimate but my best guess is as follows:

Mirrorless 2012: 3.75m  2013: 4.8m  Growth +28%

DSLR 2012: 16.25m  2013:  17.7m  Growth  +9%

Mirrorless % DSLR sales: 2012  23%  2013  27%

Surely mirrorless sales are growing faster than DSLR sales.

(If my calculations are wrong will somebody correct me, please)

Single year, you may well be right - I haven't checked your calculations.

The trend curves tell a different story, though. The question is, which is more plausible? The latest single year number. Or the trend curve. The answer is not obvious. The latest year numbers may be a fluke. Or they may be a harbinger of a change in the trend.

Regards, Mike

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Wait and see...

A year or even three or five years may not tell us much. A breakthrough in on-sensor AF, especially with larger sensors, and using a mirror would become as much a moot point as 4/3 manufacturers discovered several years ago. Remember, 4/3 didn't gain popularity until it was replaced by m4/3 that eliminated mirror, making the cameras smaller and lighter. This was recently (2008). Sony entered with APS-C format in 2010, and so did couple of other players (Fuji and Samsung). So, we're simply scratching the surface when it comes to mirror-less cameras at this time. We do know that effort is being put in, to improve on-sensor AF especially with larger sensors.

Even on FF, Sony is using on-sensor PDAF albeit not exclusively but in conjunction with mirror-based PDAF. However, it is in Sony's interest to take this further and develop OS-PDAF to an extent where it can function independently under similar lighting conditions as conventional systems do. They already have a patent on SLT-lock up, which I assume may have the underlying idea of electronic development on the sensor itself for acquiring focus and tracking.

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