Is FF sensors going to slowly phase out?

Started Apr 11, 2013 | Discussions thread
Erik Magnuson
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Re: Reality check
In reply to Just Having Fun, Apr 11, 2013

Just Having Fun wrote:

It depends how you compare.  Every way the FF lens costs more which was my point.

And hyperbole about the price detracted from your point which was my point.

...but not 2.7

Low light ISO is about that.  Using the crop factor as the aperture factor is a decent  approximation but YMMV.e.

Sure, I have a D600 and a 105mm F/2 lens.  People like us are rare and are outnumbered by soccer moms more than 10:1.  Last I saw FF was only 6% of DSLR (Nikon) sales IIRC.

An important 6% - what is the percentage of profits?

Not sure why, but it looks like he left the first year off, so maybe only 3 years (see lines on chart).  Anyway, if you add in what he left off (like 2009), it will have a huge difference.

You have a different definition of huge than I do.   Even if you assume 2009 starts at zero for mirrorless, that hardly moves the 5 year trend past the DSLR trend.  And doesn't help the 3 year trend.

Anyway we can go on record here.  I say DSLRs sales will take a huge hit over the next 5-10 years.  What is your opinion?

5 years - growth may be flat for all ILCs but mirrorless will not be gaining at any significant rate. 10 years - too far out to say.

This is not an opinion. Look at the tests:

1. Phase-detection autofocus (even using still targets and center-point only) wasn’t nearly as accurate as contrast detection.

http://www.dpreview.com/news/2012/08/01/Roger-Cicala-Lensrentals-Canon-Autofocus-marketing-claims

There are two parts to AF accuracy: precision with a single fixed target and focusing on what the user wants in a dynamic environment.   CDAF is better with the former but not with the latter - particularly if the subject is moving.  To evaluate dynamic accuracy, you would compare the "keeper rate" of images.

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Erik

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