"Mirrorless" is the future???

Started Feb 16, 2012 | Discussions thread
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Re: "Mirrorless" is the future???
In reply to digitallollygag, Apr 10, 2013

I have no doubt at all that mirrorless cameras will ultimately supplant DSLRs and I predict it will occur within the next 4 years.

My belief is based upon several factors not all of which I will mention here but for what it is worth here are my core reasons.

I teach photography, and at each class I take along a collection of cameras, DSLRs, compacts and a mirrorless camera. With few exceptions once students see the cameras in action and understand the benefits and deficits of the options they decide that mirrorless is the way they would prefer to go. As I see it the lower demand for mirrorless is not due to any customer perceived deficiencies re mirrorless but rather a lack of consumer awareness. I fully expect we will reach a point of critical mass where consumer awareness suddenly escalates. At the moment Ii feel a lot of consumers proceed down the DSLR route simply because they are not aware they actually have an alternative viable option. Despite perhaps the interests and pursuits of DP Review forum members, relatively few consumers are actually interested in the photographic tasks where perhaps a DSLR may have a clear advantage, such as shooting sport.

Looking at the differences in a more technical way, most of the mirrorless cameras supposed inherent disavantages, ie, slower focus, poor EVFs, less native lens options, are now pretty much non-issues and will soon be of no consequence at all.

Meanwhile DSLRs have some distinct disadvantages that will be resistent to much further improvement. These include, greater bulk, form factor limitations, shutter noise, tunnel like OVFs, the limitations of not having a viewfinder preview that shows the effect of processing parameters, mirror vibration, poor implementation if DOF preview etc.

I feel the DSLR has really reached the limit of its practical development, from here on the improvements will be slight, on the other hand mirrorless is just revving up. Given a couple of more years, EVFs will be so totally superior to OVFs the argument will be moot, focus systems will be probably faster than DSLRs. And of course no one could sensibly argue that a mirrorless camera does not already offer equivalent image quality potential.

My gut feeling is Canon and Nikon have really left their run too late, it is seriously possible that Sony, Olympus and Fuji etc will eat their lunch in the next few years or at the very least seriously erode their current market dominance.

And yes I have personally commited fully to the mirrorless option for my personal work, and I cannot see my Pro level DSLR and lenses being ever replaced by a new DSLR/ lenses for paid work, the next pro cam I own will be mirrorless for sure.

No doubt there will continue to be a market for DSLRs for certain segments of the serious pro and advanced shooter market but I predict it will be increasingly smaller from now on, and given say 10 years will be of little significance in total commercial terms.
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Trying to make the complex simple

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