Shakeout in the mirrorless market

I'm not sure I entirely agree with this criteria.

I think camera sales can be successful at any and all sensor sizes. Small sensor = small camera. There's a place for interchangeable lens cameras as small as compact cameras.

The AF needs to not suck, regardless of whether it's a mirrorless, mirrored, or compact design.

The same is true for price.

I think for any system camera to succeed the system itself must have a secure future, especially the lens mount system. No one wants to spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on lenses that are only usable on a system that might soon become obsolete.

For a small interchangeable lens camera, it must differentiate itself in a significant way from cellphone cameras. For larger MILCs it must answer the question, "Why not just get a DSLR?" with price, size, IQ, etc.