PIX 2015

Replacement for D300??

Started Jan 20, 2013 | Discussions thread
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Re: If I cared about portability...
In reply to ForeignerOnEarth, Jan 21, 2013

ForeignerOnEarth wrote:

There is the main importaint problem what is the priority for Nikon. Maybe Nikon solves such questions:

1. How many customers will buy the new body?

2. Does Canon have in the market the clearly better model, new model or model with the clearly better spec?

3. Make the new body the new market space?

4. Is the target customer for the new body the clever photographer who decides for the upgrade by the really useful attributes or is the target customer the user who wants the newest product with the best paper params?

5. Will the customer buy new lens or lenses?

2012 YEAR:

D4: 1. Pros for the Olympic games, 2. Yes, Canon 1D-X in the same time, 3. No, 4. serious upgraders, 5. Maybe. => 2.5 points

D800/D800e: 1. Enough to the high price, 2. Yes!!! Canon had 20MPx (5D) against 12MPx (D700) long time, 3. Yes, the highest resolution full frame, 4. serious upgraders, 5. Of course, for such resolution => 4 points

D600: 1. YES!!!!!, 2. Yes, 6D in the same time, 3. YES!!!!, the cheapest full frame body, 4. Average, 5. Of course! => 4.5 points

D3200: 1. YES!!!!!, 2. Yes, 14MPx D3100 against 18MPx Canons, 3. No, 4. Paper params users, 5. Yes, kit lens (+55-200) => 4 points

D5200: 1. YES!!!!!, 2. Yes, 16MPx D5100 against 18MPx Canons, video improvement!! 3. No, 4. Paper params users, 5. Yes, kit lens (+55-200) => 4 points

J3, V2: 1. YES!!!!, 2. No, but in this segment m4/3, NEX, Samsung, ..., 3. No, 4. Paper params users, 5. Yes, kit lens => 4 points

2013 YEAR:

D4x: 1. Little, 2. No, 3. 48M-56Px Yes, 4. Serious upgraders, 5. Yes => 2 points

D710 (small D4): 1. Maybe yes, really D700 upgrade, 2. Canon 5D MIII is faster than D800, 3. No, 4. Serious upgraders, 5. No => 1.5 points

D7200: 1. YES!!!, 2. Nikon knows Canon plans and 60D will have the successor, 3. No, 4. Fifty-fifty 5. Maybe, new Nikon customers yes, somebody due to 26 MPx => 3.5 points

DX low-end mirrorless: 1. YES!!!, 2. Yes, 3. Yes, 4. Paper params users, 5. Yes, kit lens => 5 points

V3, J4: 1. YES!!! 2. Everytimes, 3. No, 4. Paper params, 5. Yes, kit lens => 4 points

D3300: 1. Yes, 2. No, 3. No, 4. Paper params users, 5. Yes, kit lens => 3 points

D400: 1. NO!!!, 2. NO!!!, 3. NO!!!, 4. 4. Serious upgraders, 5. NO. D300 users have them.

=> 0 points

... and we can calculate:

DX low-end mirrorless: 1st priority

V3, J4: 2nd priority

D7200: 3rd priority

D3300: 4th priority

D4x: 5th priority

D710: 6th priority

D400: 7th priority --- D400: Maybe 2014 year.

But I hope in February 2013.

I see where you are coming from, actually not far from what I was thinking ...

One IMO very important point you forgot: How many peope will move to another manufacturer from the bracket you described??

1. From D4/D800?? Maybe not so many.

2. From D3xxx/D5xxx/D7xxx? maybe not that many.

3. From D200/D300? Well, I cannot imagine that I am the only one ... a good friend of mine told me a week ago, totally nonrelated to this post that he would try to sell his D300s + DX lenses because he thought that 2 things could happen:

1. Successor is THAT good the market will be flooded with D200/300 bodies or

2. People are just getting tired. It not just a game of Nokia vs Blackberry or APPLE vs PC anymore, there are other players, long neglected, who might just catch the supposedly main players whilst they are having their afternoon nap ...



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