D3100 - good deal?

My friend wants a first DSLR.  She does not want anything as big or complicated as my D7000.  She does want to be able to take macro shots etc.

The D3100 is currently available with the 18-55 and 55-200 lenses for $629.  Is that a good deal for a starter kit?  We can wait too - will there likely be a better deal, or will they just sell out and not be available later do you think?

I know she would also need a separate macro lens, that is ok.

Any particular reason I should consider a D5100 instead?