Prediction: What will be the future of photography?

Mark Scott Abeln wrote:

The future is always a matter of opinion, not scientific fact, but sometimes the past can help identify trends.

I find it very interesting looking at old photography equipment catalogs, even those from a century ago or more; things were far more elaborate back in the old days than we might suspect. I think that features now common on professional level cameras will be lost on even future pro cameras.

At one time, the use of shifts, tilts, and swings on field camera were considered essential tools of the pro and serious amateur photographer, to allow for perspective control and changing of the plane of focus. Nowadays, these are found in only the rare Perspective Control lenses and as a toy effect on Lensbabys: field cameras are now an extremely rare tool of fine arts photography.

Medium and Large format photography was once the tool of choice for pros, and now the smaller, 35 mm “full-frame” cameras are filling that role for most.

Lenses used to have infrared focus marks, and depth-of-field indicators, and aperture settings and focus distance scales were common. Some macro lenses even had magnification scales on them. Many new lenses lack these. Generally, I think that anything than can be replaced by computerization will be replaced.

Older cameras once had a wide variety of interchangeable focus screens, viewfinders, and replaceable pentaprism units. Even high-end Nikons have fewer options such as that these days.

I think that one problem may be that many cameras are directed towards the prosumer market, they need higher quality than consumer camera, but must not be too expensive. Because of the bad economy, there are plenty of folks trying their hand at making money in the arts, and even many pros are downgrading their new equipment purchases to make ends meet. Manufacturers are going to be less inclined to create new system cameras. Also, many people want good quality in a smaller size.

I remember back in the 1970s and very early 1980s, where the economy also tanked, and there was a trend in prosumer SLR cameras, appealing to consumers that wanted pro features but at a reasonable cost and smaller size. Then as now, many amateurs were trying their hand at doing pro work at bargain prices with downgraded equipment. The Olympus OM-1 and its variants was particularly popular.

An improving economy by the mid-1980s pulled the semi-professionals out of the market, and helped raise the fortunes of pros, who again were interested in top quality equipment and were willing to spend good money on it. Photography companies eventually started investing great sums of money into digital photography, and we a reaping the benefits of this historical investment now in our cameras.

If the economy improves once again, I think there will be less of a market for the low-end DSLRs for the quasi-pro market, while there will be greater investment by companies in truly pro gear. If consumers go back into the job market, making serious money, and their time being consumed by business, there may be less of a demand for inexpensive pro-like cameras, for there will be less time for underemployed professionals to express themselves artistically.

I think that current trends are telling: there is a great interest in better quality imaging from cell phones, and there is a great interest in very high-quality compact cameras. I also see a lot of complaints by beginners about the size and difficulty of using DSLRs.

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Predicting the future is a fool’s game, but certainly we can all have our opinions as to what features will be desirable in the future.

High megapixel sensors out-resolve most lenses, and this is not necessarily a bad thing. I can’t afford a 36 MP Nikon D800 and matching lenses, but such a high resolution sensor can be very useful in other matters. Most cameras use three colors of sensors, but this does not lead to precise color rendition, although it is ‘good enough’ for most work. Since we have so many pixels that may not be strictly needed most of the time, I would like to see better color rendition. Having more colors of sensors could both expand the range and accuracy of the color gamut of the camera, and if done well, could extend the dynamic range of the sensor. This could turn ordinary cameras into decent quality multispectral cameras.

More computer integration seems to be the trend also, with the iPhone camera being the best example so far. Camera companies are pretty conservative, which is a good thing, especially since I am using some lenses that are 30-40 years old, but this computer integration is likely to be an important trend.

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