Why I'm not waiting for a D400

Started Nov 22, 2012 | Discussions thread
digitallollygag
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Re: My problem(s) with the mirrorless logic
In reply to Ronan_M, Dec 2, 2012

Ronan_M wrote:

True, there will be still a gap between the two and quite possibly it might be the manufacturers themselves rather than the available technology that might keep that gap wider than it could be, to preserve the different market segments and keep the "prestige" of the DSLRs.

However, past certain point of IQ, FPS, AF performance, etc, for 95% of shooters it will make no sense to go for higher than required, particularly if there is a price advantage. The point is that this is a new market segment that's not directed at entry level and that consumers will have very high expectations of.

When I can get clean images @ ISO3200, have reliable AF on moving targets, no shutter lag and some manual controls on a mirrorless, I will not ever get a new DLSR. I reckon that point is 2-3 years away.

I agree with a lot of your observations regarding the future of mirrorless.  I think what has really not been mentioned (until your second paragraph above) is market demand.  We have an office supply here in town that no longer stocks digital point-and-shoots.  When I asked why, the pimply-faced associate reached into his pocket for his iPhone as the reason.

We have a tidal wave of young people in this world who don't give a hill of beans about the 5D MkIII's spectacular high ISO capability or the D800's resolution.  They want convenience, portability, and connectivity even if they have to navigate a bunch of menus.  If they can get 50% of the capability of a DSLR in a mirrorless now, or in 2-3 years, it's safe to say they MIGHT upgrade from their iPhone to a mirrorless as their "workhorse" camera.  Electronics companies like Samsung understand this, and Panasonic, Olympus and Sony aren't far behind.  Traditional "camera" companies Canon and Nikon were late to the mirrorless party, and will go the way of Hostess Twinkies if they think they can do what they've always done in a changing world by just making big, heavy black bodies with slapping mirrors in them.

The bottom line is, the masses will dictate the future of photography, and I seriously doubt the DSLR market segment will comprise a large piece of the pie in 5 years.  I love the feel of a DSLR in my hands, I don't own a mirrorless camera, and I'm not a mirrorless fanboy, but even I recognize the future in photography is mirrorless.

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