Current status - Obama versus Romney

Started Sep 22, 2012 | Discussions thread
mamallama
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Re: Current status - Obama versus Romney
In reply to Lee Jay, Oct 8, 2012

ljfinger wrote:

Here's the current status.

If you assign every state where one candidate leads the other by 5 points or more to the leading candidate in that state, the current electoral race is 247 Obama to 191 Romney.

There are 100 electoral votes up for grabs in the 8 states that are closer than 5 points.

Of those 100, Obama leads in 7 states that hold 85 of them. Romney leads in just one of those states - North Carolina - which holds 15 electoral votes.

Obama needs 23 of those 100 electoral votes to win, Romney needs 79 to win.

The latest Five Thirty Eight (Nate Silver) analysis still shows Obama with a commanding chance to win the necessary 270 electoral votes. - 78.4%.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Mitt Romney remains in a considerably stronger polling position than he was before last Wednesday’s debate in Denver. But the polls released on Sunday did not tell quite as optimistic a story for him as those in the debate’s immediate aftermath.

The four national tracking polls as published on Sunday were largely unchanged from their Saturday releases. Mr. Romney maintained a 2-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, but President Obama’s lead held at 2 points in an online poll published by Ipsos and at 3 points in the Gallup tracking poll. In the RAND Corporation’s online tracking poll, which lists its results to the decimal place, Mr. Obama’s lead declined incrementally, to 3.9 percentage points from 4.4 on Saturday.

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