New 400 F4

Started Sep 27, 2012 | Discussions thread
maxxjr
Regular MemberPosts: 341
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Re: Another no...
In reply to Jim4496, Sep 28, 2012

putting the marketing hat on

Price and cost are two separate things.

For cost...it is more reasonable to look at physical factors.

For price...who is the lens targeted at? I think professionals will be focused on the 400/2.8, 300/2.8, 500/4, etc.

So...semi-pro or enthusiasts? How much would these classes pay to sell enough to justify making the lens?

I consider myself in the enthusiast class...but with the 400/5.6L (which I am very happy with), you can see the kind of price range I am looking at. Not $4K+. It is a step up vs. the 400/5.6, so maybe something approaching $2K. If Canon wants to target me, or 100-400L or 400/5.6 owners looking for a step up, price will have to be lower than the speculation in this thread.

...and if price is low enough, more volume can still result in good total profit, even with lower margins vs. cost.

By the way...I like the size/weight of the 400/5.6. I would also be interested in a 400/5.6 IS.

Jim4496 wrote:

Steve Balcombe wrote:

I agree that's a legitimate way to estimate, and as you can see the 500/5.6 is third largest of those four so it should be correspondingly low in the price scale.

However I didn't make enough allowance for the current 400/5.6 being a bargain priced very old model. Here's a rough stab at some prices:

300mm F/2.8 - 107mm -- $7299 (actual US list price)
400mm F/4 ---- 100mm -- $5500 (my guess based on slightly less than the DO)
400mm F/5.6 --- 71mm -- $2000 (my guess for a MkII - current is £1339)
500mm F/5.6 --- 89mm -- $4000 (interpolated from the above)

So double the price of a hypothetical new 400/5.6, and somewhat less than a new 400/4 - and three times the price of the current 400/5.6, as you said.

A bit of wishfull thinking in those prices.

With the 300 f2.8 at 7299
then the 400 f 4 will be 7299*100^2/107^2 = 6375
and a 500 f5.6 will be 7299*89^2/107^2 = 5049

The lens price varies with the square of the diameter, its not linear. Also the DO is an old lens and i doubt that a new 400 f4 would be less expensive.

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