Sensor size "battle" on Mirrorless cameras ? Who will win

Started Jul 23, 2012 | Discussions thread
Aleo Veuliah
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Re: Very well elaborated opinion, I agree with you.
In reply to iano, Jul 24, 2012

Thank you for this good opinion

iano wrote:

I also do not think there will be a single 'winner'.

This is not like VHS vs Beta where one has to eventually abandon the market. More like GM vs Ford where the share changes but in the end people like to be individual.

So no winner take it all.

However there will be:
1) A format in use by most mirrorless cameras so a 'winner' in that sense

2) A format that increases market share from the current position so a winner in that sense.

My predictions:
To number 1, for some time APS-C will be the winner.
To number 2, m43 will be the winner.

Here is my logic.

Premise 1.

The first important point is that I do not see two distinct markets for mirrorless and DSLR but rather one combined market. I think most of us using m4/3 are using in place of using a DSLR. Sure we may not use m43 for all tasks and may still use a DSLR some of the time, but for most of us, most of the ime we use m43, we are using it instead of using a DSLR.

Mirrorless does poach from the DSLR market. The better mirrorless gets, the more it will poach until eventually what is left of the DSLR market is very small. This will take years and need mirrorless equivalents to the D1 and the 1D to be a complete process, but I beleive it will happen in the next ten years.

Premise 2.

Nikon and now Canon have each put a toe in the water, but that does not mean run away and declare the water too cold. They know they have to be brave and while they are still acclimatising now sooner or later they must sink or swim.

I have read things like 'why would Canon cannibalise their entry level DSLR products?'. I suggest they would rather do this than let someone else do it, and given that an EVF may be more cost effective than a mirror mechanism they have no problem producing a new model that replaces an old as long as they can maintain margins and not lose overall market share.

The first products form both Nikon and Canon deliberately occupy the 'small as possible, simple as possible' end of the spectrum. But further models will move further into being real alternatives for more serious shooters. Each first entry allows them to build a lens base and both expertise and credibility with mirrorless, and leaves then free to introduce additional models that are not so small or simple without then being criticised for having no small and simple mirrorless .

Premise 3

The Canon and Nikon entries reflect their longer term plans. This premise has the most guesswork, but I think it no coincidence the guys with the big base of PDAF lenses introduce PDAF on their mirrorless (whether or not it is yet working well enough). Sure the current Canon has serious limitations but it signals an entry into APS-C mirrorless which will not stop at one Camera. Nikon on the other hand has gone for a new smaller stadnard leaving it open for them go either 35mm or APS-C and I am going to boldly predict they may go 35mm!

Conclusions.
As mirrorless market continues to grow in proportion to DSLR we will have

1- pentax Q
2- Nikon 1, CX
3- Olympus, Panasonic m43
4- Canon, Sony, Fuji (maybe Nikon one day? ) APS-C
5- Leica, Nikon (probably), Canon (maybe) 35mm

Number should have the biggest total numbers, just based on existing market position.

But I do believe m43 (number 3) will have made the biggest market share gains in the transition.

The threat here is that Olympus, while on a roll right now do have underlying problems and Panasonic with the G5 seems to be moving in a very dangerous direction with respect to corporate culture.

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Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.

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