EF Mount APS-C Sensors to Become: "a curiosity of the past."

Started Jul 23, 2012 | Discussions thread
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Silvex
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EF Mount APS-C Sensors to Become: "a curiosity of the past."
Jul 23, 2012

At least that's what this guy says:
http://falklumo.blogspot.it/2012/06/true-reasons-full-frame.html
He has written a couple of interesting white papers on full frame cameras.
Here are the pull quotes:

"Sensor sizes have been kept smaller than technically appropriate, possibly to protect good margins in a growing and prospering market. Such a state of any system is known as supercritical: any small perturbation may suffice to throw it back into a state of equilibrium."
...

"...the APS-C dSLR was originally introduced (in 1998/DCS520 $12,000) as a temporary technical compromise in order to make a digital SLR feasible at all. And 35 mm full frame was introduced when that was feasible then (in 2000/Contax-ND $6,500, and Photokina 2002/Canon-1Ds $8,000/Kodak-14n $4,000).

'But for no known reason, the market separation between entry-level SLR (APS-C) and pro-level SLR (full frame) has become a non-moving barrier. Around 2008 (3 years after the 5D) it should have reached and moved out of the $1,500 enthusiast camera segment. As described in the white paper above, there are no good technical reasons to explain why it did not happen. Including the manufacturing price differences which faded away, compared to what they have been initially. Today, the manufacturing price difference shouldn't be more than a few hundred [dollars].
...

"But according to my own research, the most expensive component (the full frame sensor) is less than about $ 300 purchase price for the camera vendor. So, a full frame camera could run at about $ 500-$900 above an equally specified APSC camera which is closer to $ 1,500 to $ 2,500 rather than $ 3,000. Full frame SLR cameras will soon be sub $ 2,000 items and absolutely rule the enthusiast SLR market."
...

"The new offers from Nikon (D800 and D600) therefore directly address this and may accelerate the disappearence[sic] of the artificial market separation. This is known as “supercriticality”: the market ought to offer uncrippled, full frame enthusiast cameras in the $1,500 segment but offers APS-C cameras instead. Supercritical systems “fall” into their preferred state after only small perturbations occur. Once this happens, a D800 type camera will be in the $1,500 segment.
...

"Of course, this means that the cameras with a full frame mount but a half frame sensor become what they meant to be: a curiosity of the past. The full frame mystery will eventually be obsolete. Let's check back before Photokina 2014."

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