Poll: which FX - results

Started Mar 14, 2012 | Discussions thread
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bobn2
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Poll: which FX - results
Mar 14, 2012

Thanks to everyone who posted in my poll.
http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/readflat.asp?forum=1021&message=40897377

Just for fun, and as some people pointed out, entirely unscientific, but here goes.

I decided to post the results in a new thread, so people can discuss them here leaving the original thread for people who want to register their purchasing intentions.

In a fit of whimsy, I decided that each respondent represents 1000 buyers. If they are wavering, just 500 and the 'maybes' just 250 - thus they are weighted (roughly) by firmness of intention. These figures are based on list prices (D4-$6000, D800, E and H - $3000, D600 - $2400) and a margin of 40% for the D4, 25% for the D800 variants and 20% for the D600 (pure guesstimates).
So here's how the sales pan out so far (53 respondents).

With Nikon's actual policy (D4+D800) they sell:

  • 8500 D4's and 39500 D800's, grossing $169,500,000 with a profit of $50,025,000 or 29.5%

If they add a D800H into the line they sell:

  • 5500 D4's, 36000 D800(E)'s and 14750 D800H's, grossing $185,250,000 with a profit of $51,262,500 or 27.7%

If they add just a D600 into the line they sell:

  • 8500 D4's, 37500 D800(E)'s and 13000 D600's, grossing $194,700,000 with a profit of $54,765,000 or 28.1%

If they add both a D800H and a D600 into the line, they sell:

  • 5500 D4's, 34000 D800(E)'s, 11750 D800H's and 11000 D600's, grossing $196,650,000 with a profit of $52,792,500 or 26.8%

(if you want the raw intentions, just divide the camera numbers by 1000)

Take it all with a pinch of salt, but to me it indicates that Nikon's D4, D800(E) strategy is pretty good.

If they wanted to add another camera into the line, the D600 is the best bet, since it sells quite well and doesn't cannibalize the profitable D4 at all (it cannibalizes the D800 a little) but in the end brings new sales.

The D800H looks to me a less attractive option. It sells only quite well, and that is at the cost of a big impact on D4 sales and also on D800 sales. as a result, despite adding 8,250 cameras to the overall sales it adds only $1,237,500 in profit (this is due to loss of D4 margin offsetting the extra sales). Adding a D600 as well retrieves the situation a bit, but is still not as profitable as the combination of D4, D800(E) and D600.

Of course, I've messed up the poll by publishing interim results, but I'll keep this updated if people keep contributing.

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Bob

Nikon D4 Nikon D600 Nikon D800
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