G3 heralds the end of APS-C DSLRs

Started May 13, 2011 | Discussions thread
Iforgetwhat8was4
Contributing MemberPosts: 795
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Re: Even if you were right, you'd be wrong
In reply to Lee Jay, May 14, 2011

Your PC analogy appears to be missing the 900lb gorilla in the room, probably because it is hidden behind the elephant.

A netbook now costs the equivalent of a hand calculator in the day. And the internet has made access a need not a want. Kids go abroad with the same backpack, and a netbook instead of Europe on $5 a Day . Music, movies, mail-order? you pretty much have to use the net.

On the other hand, compact cameras have been with us for decades.

If μ4/3 loses out to cell phones, then so does APS. If a consumer wishes to move up from cell phones (or any number of bridge cameras) then they will decide between APS and μ4/3 on their respective merits.

That said, I agree with your larger point, that the G3 is no death knell.

I think something like this will happen:

CDAF vs. PDAF

I think the dichotomy is overblown. PDAF is almost as young as digital capture, both products of silicon electronics. While PDAF naturally fits into an SLR where the light path is already being shunted, and CDAF naturally fits into a live view camera, they are not exclusive. There is no reason you won't get PD+CDAF in a dedicated "action" μ4/3 and DSLR's are already offering CDAF options. Somebody will figure out an unobtrusive way to integrate it into a mirrorless system, and then everything will be hybrid.

Global shutter

There are no guarantees we see this anytime soon, but it will solve most of the live action blackout problem.

Viewfinder

EVF already has advantages in low light and manual focus. It suffers from a small electronic delay. Here, too, I think the future is hybrid with an EVF in OVF giving the best of live view what you see is what you get, SLR through the lens, and rangefinder frame within view.

In the end I think there will be more a melding than a bifurcation.

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