Thom's 2009 predicitions: 24MP FF yes soon, likely no MX

Started Nov 12, 2008 | Discussions thread
Thom Hogan
Forum ProPosts: 13,659
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Re: The thing I find most interesting
In reply to HAE, Nov 12, 2008

HAE wrote:

The info portion is likely high in this one.

Well, the "Nikon" part is the least reliable part. I used the word "Nikon" instead of "Sony" because I don't think the sensor being used is exactly the Sony sensor.

That would be some surprise. Canon made the jump from 11MP to 21 MP
in 2 generations without and not even doubled the pixel count.

Well, technically Nikon went from 4mp to 12mp in ONE generation ; )

Given the properties of the D3 sensor that we can reverse engineer, most of us speculate that Nikon could certainly produce a 6 micron sensor that's competitive using basically the same architecture.

This is something that Thom is also
predicting in his speculated D400 specs.

Nikon has some deciding to do soon. A downturn is exactly the time to do it, as they could definitely hurt Sony's DSLR future by going it alone on sensors. For Nikon, there's risk with either approach, though. If Canon does finally get their compact sensors running, I think Nikon will have no choice but to do their own sensors. But then again, Nikon seems to be happy with their Coolpix efforts. Personally, I think they should be worried that the Coolpix success is running a bit too much on reputation than it is on execution. Ultimately, the winners will be the ones that control "the image" from bottom to top.

Now if it is not called a D3x, I guess it can be one of two things:
either a modular version of the D3, or alternatively something
called, say, a D3z.

I'm still trying to figure this out. I got pretty definitive word that its in a D3-type body, not a D700-type body. Yet there were consistent comments out of some parts of Nikon that this wouldn't be called a D3x. Either they changed their mind, they were being deliberately deceptive, or there's something I haven't figured out yet. The best I can come up with is that there will be a D3s or D3sh (bigger buffer, info button improvements, etc.) and a D3sx. But that doesn't make a lot of sense, either.

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Thom Hogan
author, Complete Guides to Nikon bodies (19 and counting)
http://www.bythom.com

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