Will there be a new *istD coming soon?

Started Dec 2, 2004 | Discussions thread
Dave Lewis
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Re: Will there be a new *istD coming soon?
In reply to James O'Neill, Dec 4, 2004

James O'Neill wrote:

Brendan PK wrote:

Look here:
http://www.thephotostation.net/forums/showthread.php?t=986
info you might be able to use

I'm guessing the Brendan who wrote that is you ?
I'm second guessing that it's based on informal / non-attributable
information from Pentax sources and some which might be covered by
NDA.

However here is my Guess of Record.
1. Pentax announced the *ist-D at PMA '03 - it was their first
DSLR, partly to learn the process of making one with a low volume
model before going for high volume with the DS.
2. Production problems meant we couldn't buy it until september 03
but it was originally slated for May/June.
3. The life span of a DSLR is about 2 years. (e.g. Canon 10D ...
20D) so in the Normal run of things a *ist-D MK II should arrive
sometime in mid '05, with an announcement at PMA reasonably likely.
4. There needs to be as clear a distinction between a MKII and the
DS as there is between Canons 20D and 300D (which should get
replaced late next year). USB 2 is a given, 8MP is what the market
expects. Support for the same grip (and other accessories) as the
*ist-D makes a lot of sense, so does a set of shooting modes
aligned with the D rather than the DS.
5. It is too soon for a full frame sensor to be affordable - unless
Pentax are going try a full-on only-a-pro-can-afford camera.

I don't expect to be upgrading until '07 when the MKIII should be
due (with, God willing, a 12 or 15MP full frame sensor).

My guesses are not 100%. I said the only sure thing about the
"Znd-D" as I called the DS pre-launch was it would not have a metal
chasis. So don't back any horses on my say so.

I just can't see full frame sensors. There are only two available now and they haven't been good sellers as far as I know. The Kodak one has been wrough with problems, though apparently somewhat straightened out in the latest model that takes Canon lenses. The 1Ds and mkII model have been well accepted by some pros, though I think the 1DmkII has had a better following. Canon has a clear commitment to the smaller sensor with the Rebel D and 20D and is surely continuing with that sensor or they wouldn't be coming with more of the dedicated lenses. Nikon has made no change in the direction of full frame. For Pentax to come with a full frame camera would be a shot in a very dark corner, since that corner is occupied by pros already committed to Nikon or Canon. There is not the longer lens base with Pentax to garner pros and there is not an IS lens base to satisfy the pro sports photographer. I can't see such coming from Pentax. I think they will continue to upgrade their consumer level DSLR's to make them competitive with Nikon and Canon consumer level DSLR's. Whether they come with a higher pixel count aps size sensor is dependent on Sony and really probably dependent on Nikon. I doubt Pentax has the volume to offer Sony to bring the kind of R&D necessary to make a different sensor attractive to them. You can talk about sensor size all you want, but the key is availability. Canon has the corner on all of this because they make their own sensors. Kodak could too if they would make something that didn't have a bunch of problems. Fuji and Sigma apparently are just too small a players to be market movers, though I'm pretty sure the Fuji S2 and S3 have been much more accepted than the Kodak - Nikon and Kodak-Canon models. Minolta and Olympus trailers, probably always trailers.
--
Dave Lewis

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